N°24-68: Quantifying Uncertainty: A New Era of Measurement through Large Language Models

This paper presents an innovative method for measuring uncertainty using Large Language Models (LLMs), offering enhanced precision and contextual sensitivity compared to the conventional methods used to construct prominent uncertainty indices. By analyzing newspaper texts with state-of-the-art LLMs, our approach captures nuances often missed by conventional methods. We develop indices for various types of uncertainty, including geopolitical risk, economic policy, monetary policy, and financial market uncertainty. Our findings show that shocks to these LLM-based indices exhibit stronger associations with macroeconomic variables, shifts in investor behaviour, and asset return variations than conventional indices, underscoring their potential for more accurately reflecting uncertainty.