N°23-22: Foreign Exchange Swap Liquidity

This paper presents the first comprehensive examination of liquidity in the global foreign exchange (FX) swap market. Our analysis employs effective measures that assess both the tightness and depth of the global market. We identify three main findings: First, FX swap liquidity is fragmented across currencies, tenors, and time. Second, liquidity conditions worsen when dealers’ balance sheet capacity shrinks, especially at quarter-end reporting dates. However, we observe a simultaneous surge in short-term volumes; we rationalize this through a difference-in-differences analysis suggesting a demand channel for FX swaps during reporting windows. Third, we build a measure of pricing efficiency based on the law of one price and show that illiquidity impairs efficiency even during periods when dealers’ regulatory constraints are slack.