Nº 21-26: Conflicted Analysts and Initial Coin Offerings

Freelancing human experts play an important role in Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs). Expert ratings partially reflect the reciprocal network of ICO members and analysts. Ratings predict ICO success, but highly imperfectly. Favorably rated ICOs tend to fail when more ratings reciprocate prior ratings. Failure despite strong ratings is also frequent when analysts have a history of optimism, and when reviews strike a particulary positive tone. These findings help illuminate the workings of ICOs for funding new ventures, and the rich data also yield insights pertinent to the literature on equity analysts and rating agencies.